China News Service, September 20 According to the People's Daily, with the implementation of the macro-control policy in the electrolytic aluminum industry, the investment in electrolytic aluminum has rapidly cooled, and competition for the survival of the fittest has begun. It is expected that China's annual increase in electrolytic aluminum production will increase. The year-on-year decline will be 8 percentage points, but the potential for consumer demand is still quite large. Luo Tao, the secretary-general of Aluminum Corporation of China, recently analyzed the trend of aluminum market at home and abroad from several aspects at the group's annual meeting. First, the aluminum price in the international market will continue to fall deeper in the second half of the year. Affected by China's macro-control policy, from April 20th onwards, the aluminum price in the international market has fallen sharply in recent years, and fell by 280 US dollars in 14 trading days. In the second half of the year, although all countries are under pressure to raise interest rates, the world economy still maintains a steady recovery. The sustained economic recovery will further stimulate the demand for aluminum ingots, resulting in a gradual increase in the aluminum ingot supply gap. Therefore, the possibility of aluminum prices continuing to fall deep in the second half of the year is less likely, and the external environment faced by the aluminum market is still relatively favorable. Second, China's macro-control policies have achieved results in the electrolytic aluminum industry. Since the beginning of this year, the national adjustment of electricity price policy, strict implementation of industrial policies and environmental protection policies, elimination of outdated self-baked tank production processes, and strengthening of project approval system management, etc., the investment in electrolytic aluminum has cooled rapidly. A group of small aluminum companies with small scale and lack of resource advantages have stepped into the dilemma of substantive operations. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 14 percentage points year-on-year. The annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to reach 8 million tons, which will form an idle capacity of nearly 2 million tons. Third, competition in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry for the survival of the fittest has begun. Some large enterprises with large-scale advantages, obvious advantages in resources, and consumption areas have obtained rare opportunities for development. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, 38 electrolytic aluminum enterprises suffered losses in the first half of the year. Antaco's survey showed that the actual loss reached more than 80%. In the first half of this year, about 1.47 million tons of planned construction capacity was halted and another 900,000 tons of production capacity was postponed. It is expected that the increase in electrolytic aluminum output in China will fall by 8 percentage points year-on-year. Fourth, domestic aluminum products still have considerable potential for consumer demand. It was 3.39 million tons in 2000, 3.5 million tons in 2001, 4.07 million tons in 2002, and 5.23 million tons in 2003, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 13%. It can be seen that the market is expanding. At present, China’s economy has entered a period of rapid growth. Even if the average annual growth rate is slightly lower than in previous years, China’s aluminum consumption will exceed 10 million tons by 2010, and per capita consumption will reach 7.6 kilograms. At present, there is still a big gap between the per capita consumption of 20 to 30 kg in developed countries. Therefore, China's electrolytic aluminum consumption demand still has considerable potential. (Fei Weiwei)
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