The electrolytic aluminum industry, which has been deterred by the country's three orders of application, has experienced a recovery for more than a year after it finally reached a recovery in the second half of the year. According to customs statistics, in August, electrolytic aluminum exports 94,000 tons in a single month, an increase of 68.9% year-on-year, and the export volume was 1.3 times the average monthly export volume in the first seven months, a new high in nearly 14 months. It is worth noting that, as profits have risen, the investment in the electrolytic aluminum industry has rapidly rebounded, and the growth of exports has become evident.
Although the country has adopted a series of macro-control policies such as the elimination of export tax rebates, the addition of 5% export tariffs, and strict processing trade approvals, the export of aluminum products has fallen sharply since 2005. Due to the abundant supply of alumina this year, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has dropped drastically, and the aluminum market has been operating at a high level due to strong demand. At the same time, exports have also become more robust in the second half of the year.
In August, China’s export of electrolytic aluminum accounted for more than processing trade in general, and the growth of state-owned enterprises’ exports was relatively rapid. The average export price also rose sharply. In August, it reached US$2,490/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 39.2%.
According to industry insiders, the signs of recovery in the electrolytic aluminum industry are evident, and the profits of the electrolytic aluminum producers can make up for the losses caused by the tariffs imposed on the exports of electrolytic aluminum, thereby promoting the recovery of exports of electrolytic aluminum in the near future. It is estimated that in 2006 and 2007 China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will reach 11.6 million tons and 12.5 million tons, respectively, and the hidden dangers of oversupply will be difficult to eliminate. It is necessary to prevent the blind investment construction from spreading.
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