Japanese earthquake caused steel mills to stop production of Chinese companies to looming import substitution opportunities

Due to the earthquake, many steel mills in Japan temporarily stopped production, directly affecting the export of high-end steel products in Japan, which in turn provided opportunities for China's high-end steel to replace imports.   Silicon steel is a high-precision product among steel products. Due to the overall market situation and the earthquake in Japan this year, WISCO (600005.SH) announced yesterday that its oriented silicon steel 130 and above grades were raised by 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of oriented silicon steel with specifications of 30Q130 was raised. The tax-included price is RMB 20053.8/ton.   In addition, due to the small capacity of construction steel in Japan, the post-disaster reconstruction is expected to drive the export of Chinese construction steel. Post-disaster reconstruction to drive the export of building materials The earthquake in Japan caused a large number of local infrastructure, ports, cars and houses to be destroyed, and some areas were even devastated. Hu Yanping, a joint metal analyst, said in an interview with China Business News yesterday that Japanese autos and some industrial production were temporarily suspended due to the earthquake, and steel demand was also reduced. However, in the medium term, Japan will carry out post-disaster reconstruction after the earthquake. It will also gradually resume work, and the demand for steel will be increased. In the past five years, Japan's crude steel output has remained between 85 million and 125 million tons, accounting for 7% to 10% of the world's crude steel. In 2010, Japan's crude steel output was close to 110 million tons, and exports were about 43.4 million tons. According to statistics, in 2010, steel production in the northeastern part of Japan was 25.8 million tons, accounting for 24% of Japan's total production. UBS analyst Sun Xu believes that steel production in northeastern Japan will decline significantly, but unaffected steel mills can increase capacity utilization accordingly, and the earthquake is expected to reduce Japanese steel production by 10% to 15%. According to data provided by Qihui Securities analyst Yan Hui, from the data of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, from 2009 to 2010, the order quantity of steel in the affected area accounted for about 30% of the total order of Japanese steel, so the Japanese part in the short term. Exports of steel products will be affected. This is only the northeastern region. As the earthquake hit Japan's power supply facilities, it may also affect the production of steel mills in other regions. Pan Xifeng, an analyst at Northeast Securities, believes that nuclear power accounts for more than 30% of Japan's electricity supply. The earthquake has caused heavy losses to Japan's nuclear power industry, so power restrictions may also adversely affect steel mill production. In addition, Japanese construction steel production is not large. Reconstruction after the disaster requires a lot of building materials first. According to Hu Yanping, from the perspective of Japan's steel production structure, its plate accounts for a large proportion, close to 70%, so post-disaster reconstruction will create demand for such steel, which is conducive to China's steel exports. Opportunity for high-tech steel Zhengdong believes that because the Japanese steel industry is mainly concentrated in the production of medium and high-end steel, such as silicon steel sheets, high-end car panels, etc., the earthquake will directly affect the export of high-end steel in Japan, which will be China's high-end sheet metal production enterprises have formed favorable conditions, especially WISCO, Baosteel and other enterprises will directly benefit. “It is beneficial to China's silicon steel to replace imports.” Baosteel Group mentioned above, “From a technical point of view, Baosteel's silicon steel has reached the international advanced level, but compared with companies producing silicon steel in Japan, etc. A problem of recognition takes time.” At present, China's silicon steel products still rely on imports. The main importing countries are concentrated in Japan, South Korea, Russia and other countries. Among them, Japan's import resources still rank first among silicon steel importing countries. Last year, China's imports of silicon steel from Japan accounted for 48% of total imports, an increase from 2009, and the overall proportion increased by 8 percentage points. In 2010, China imported 776,100 tons of silicon steel, including 262,700 tons of oriented silicon steel and 713,400 tons of non-oriented silicon steel; the export volume was 159,900 tons, including 12,200 tons of oriented silicon steel and 143,700 tons of non-oriented silicon steel. As a downstream user of silicon steel, Tianwei Baobian (600550.SH), a person in charge of the secretarial office, told this newspaper yesterday: "It is not known whether the earthquake will affect the Japanese suppliers to supply us. If it affects, we can Through imports from other channels, South Korea and China are also producing a large amount of silicon steel. At present, domestic companies producing silicon steel mainly include WISCO, Baosteel (600019.SH) and Angang Steel (000898.SZ), among which several large enterprises, among them WISCO is a leading domestic silicon steel company. It is not only silicon steel that has an alternative opportunity. According to Hu Yanping, Japan mainly exports mainly steel plates, of which hot rolling, medium plate and cold rolling, and galvanizing account for the majority. China's steel imports from Japan are mainly used in high-end automobiles and high-end home appliances. Domestic steel companies have also increased product development and investment in these areas in recent years.

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