On June 11, China will consider purchasing and storage policies for some important resource products (such as copper, rare earth, etc.), and news that some rare metals will adopt measures similar to rare earth management measures will spread in the non-ferrous metal industry. Li Yusheng, a senior copper analyst at Beijing Antaike, said that copper prices are still high and there is no need to use storage to boost market prices.
On June 11, China will consider purchasing and storage policies for some important resource products (such as copper, rare earth, etc.), and news that some rare metals will adopt measures similar to rare earth management measures will spread in the non-ferrous metal industry.
Encouraged by this good news, the Shanghai Copper Exchange on the Shanghai Stock Exchange plunged against the daily trend. On that day, its main contract 1209 gapped higher and closed up 1320 points to close at 54,350 yuan per ton.
A reporter from China Business Daily learned from the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission that the country has not recently received a plan to store copper.
At the same time, the reporter was also informed that the construction of the reserve mechanism for copper has started preparations, and it is expected that a fixed storage and storage mechanism will be established in the future as well as the rare earth. In the future, when the copper is stored and stored, the price and quantity of its storage and storage will be conducted in a confidential manner.
"The copper storage and storage plan is still under development. It will not be implemented in the near future. The future storage will focus on national economic security, and at the same time it will focus on the adjustment function of market prices. However, the specific operation procedures and data of copper storage and storage will be kept confidential." The relevant person of the raw material department of the Ministry of Industry and Information indicated.
The industry generally believes that the news of copper storage and storage shows that the management department is concerned about the domestic economic trend. The current high copper price does not obviously reflect the real demand of the copper market. In the second half of this year, the price of copper will continue to decline.
The timing of the reserve is undetermined. "The reserve mechanism is being studied and it does not mean that it will be implemented soon. Since it is a national reserve, it is not only to regulate the market, but also to consider national economic security. It is believed that the introduction of such reserve measures in the future will be the norm." On June 12th, the above-mentioned officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the Ministry of Industry told this reporter that he believed that the timing for the launch of copper storage and storage would depend on the price of copper and the economic environment.
“The market has always been controversial about storing copper or aluminum. Relative to aluminum, the price of copper has fluctuate more and has a wide range of industrial applications. It has always acted as a benchmark for basic metal raw materials. So the stability of copper prices is maintained for the entire industrial economy. The impact is far more strategic than the reserve of aluminum," said the official of the raw material department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Regarding whether or not copper is being collected and stored, it will also implement policies for the collection and storage of resource products such as rare earth and tungsten. The above-mentioned Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officials revealed that preliminary studies on the reserves of several metals such as rare earth and tungsten have already started. Still to be finalized with the NDRC.
“Such as the proposal for the reserve of rare earths was put forward as early as last May, and the reserve of tungsten was also confirmed at the beginning of this year, but they have not been formally launched until now,†said the MIIT official.
Market participants believe that the timing of purchasing and storage generally refers to the cost price of the product. Only when the price approaches or falls below the cost price is it suitable for storage.
At present, domestic copper prices are basically maintained within the range of 50,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan per ton. In terms of cost, the domestic production cost of electrolytic copper is between 30,000 and 40,000 yuan. The price of imported copper is between 25,000 and 30,000 yuan. Compared with the current market price of 50,000 to 60,000 yuan, there are still copper prices. Great down space.
Li Yusheng, a senior copper analyst at Beijing Antaike, said that copper prices are still high and there is no need to use storage to boost market prices.
“I think it is not appropriate to store copper now, but from the perspective of institution building, it is certainly necessary to start establishing a copper storage and storage mechanism.†Li Yusheng believes that when the price is still good, it may also be to respond to the impending economic situation. deterioration.
The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 9 showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in May increased by 3.0% from the same period last year, which is the lowest point in 23 months since July 2010, and the industrial producer price (PPI) It was down 1.4% year-on-year, of which non-ferrous metals prices fell by 6.2% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, both at low levels in recent years.
Regarding measures that will adopt rare earth-like management measures for some rare metals, a senior industry source told reporters: “Rare-earth management is now managed separately using domestic trade and foreign trade. In China, we implement a mandatory plan for mining and smelting, and adopt quotas for exports. It is expected that the storage and storage of copper will draw on the recovery and storage methods of rare earths, which currently use enterprise reserves, mine reserves, and national reserves in parallel, and copper may use the state reserves and corporate reserves in parallel to carry out secrets, because copper imports are large, so Using mine reserves is not realistic."
The mysterious reserve mechanism According to the reporter's understanding, the State Material Reserve Bureau (the National Development and Reform Commission's National Reserve Bureau), a specialized agency responsible for national material reserves, usually does not disclose its specific time and data when collecting and storing some important raw materials.
On April 16, 2009, the China Nonferrous Metals Association, which focused on copper storage, had publicly stated that “in three years, the country will store and store 1 million tons of aluminum, 400,000 tons of copper, and 400,000 tons of lead and zinc. However, due to the fact that the State Bureau of Material Reserve has not announced any information about the collection and storage of non-ferrous metals, so far, the collection and storage of non-ferrous metals such as aluminum and copper is still a mystery.
As for the upcoming new round of non-ferrous metals purchase and storage, the State Material Reserve Bureau remains silent. At the beginning of this year, the "12th Five-Year Development Plan for Non-ferrous Metals Industry" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not explicitly propose plans for non-ferrous metal reserves.
From the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2009, due to the financial crisis, Shanghai Copper plunged below 27,000 yuan per ton, and a large number of copper producers suffered serious losses. The country began to collect and store urgently. During the process of storing and storing non-ferrous metals such as copper for nearly half a year, an industry veteran told reporters that the amount of copper collected during that time may be much higher than the market expected, because at the beginning of the year There is still the last time that the state reserve copper was sold in the market. The impact of the State Reserve’s copper on copper prices is still on the way.
The above-mentioned person from the China Nonferrous Metals Association told the reporter that the plan for national reserves of non-ferrous metals was studied in 2009, but due to the impact of the 4 trillion stimulus plan, copper prices have been improving all the time. As a result, the plan for purchasing and storage has been temporarily put on hold. In his view, the resumption of copper storage and storage plans is largely influenced by the pessimistic expectations of the macro economy and has nothing to do with the current trend of copper prices.
It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission are generally divided into two categories when researching raw material reserves: one is raw materials that China is in serious shortage and needs to import, such as petroleum and copper, and the other is that China has abundant reserves and output, and exports a large number of products to meet international standards. Important raw materials that the market needs: such as rare earths.
According to Liu Libin, a senior copper analyst at Greening, if you look at the perspective of ****, it is necessary to store some of the important metals. The United States and Japan have such reserves. In addition to crude oil, China has no comprehensive reserve system for basic metal systems. Although copper and aluminum were purchased at the end of 2008, they were only used to boost market prices and were not considered for national economic security.
Affected by the economic downturn and adverse downstream demand, this year's domestic copper stocks hit a record high in the past decade.
The copper stocks disclosed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange show that as of June 8th, its copper stocks were 132,000 tons. Although it was 95,000 tons less than the peak value on March 16, the stocks in the bonded areas of the ports continued to increase. Has set a decade of copper inventory history of the highest value. On April 18, the World Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that there are 1.78 million tons of copper stocks in addition to bonded warehouse stocks, plus 550,000 tons of stocks in the bonded area. China’s copper stocks will exceed 2.3 million tons, reaching the highest ever.
** Copper is once again warming yet it is amazing that, even if domestic copper stocks are high and demand continues to shrink, imported copper is still being shipped to China.
According to statistics, China’s copper imports increased by 11.7% in May this year. With regard to the increase in imports, Mr. Guo, a Shanghai copper import trader, told this reporter that the sudden explosion in copper imports was caused by a large increase in copper. He told reporters that compared with the first four months of this year, the price of imported copper was poor. The price of 4,000 yuan per ton dropped to 600 yuan per ton. As the domestic situation is still grim, **copper has renewed its revival.
Public data shows that as of June 11th, LME’s total copper stocks in March were 235,200 tons. In order to meet China’s demand for copper, most of the stocks that were significantly reduced were shipped to China.
All respondents in the industry pointed out that the current downstream demand for copper is rather poor, even worse than the same period in 2009. According to statistics, in May the copper downstream industries, such as cable and household appliance industries, were generally under-utilized, and the average operating rate of power cable enterprises was only 73.4%. Although many projects in recent places have been approved, they have not yet been converted into actual demand.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on June 9, China’s industrial added value increased by 9.6% year-on-year in May, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.8%, which was lower than the expected increase of 9.9% and 14.3% respectively. At the same time, data from the previous month also appeared. Decline.
Mr. Guo, a copper import trading company in Shanghai, told reporters that the funds financed by copper financing are mostly used for the company's working capital, and the average time is 3 to 6 months. This reporter learned that, in addition to part of corporate finance for their own use, there are also part of the funds financed by copper into the tight real estate industry by means of lending. “The cost of financing copper is about 10% per annum, and the interest on its lending is generally lower than that of private citizens (approximately 15% to 20% per annum). Currently, companies that make copper are still profitable. ."
“According to the situation we understand, the average opening rate of downstream producers of copper is less than 40%, and most of the imported copper is in the hands of traders.†Mr. Guo believes that the short-term upswing is not sustainable, if the downstream demand Has been weak, ** copper is difficult to realize, this copper road will also die.
On June 11, China will consider purchasing and storage policies for some important resource products (such as copper, rare earth, etc.), and news that some rare metals will adopt measures similar to rare earth management measures will spread in the non-ferrous metal industry.
Encouraged by this good news, the Shanghai Copper Exchange on the Shanghai Stock Exchange plunged against the daily trend. On that day, its main contract 1209 gapped higher and closed up 1320 points to close at 54,350 yuan per ton.
A reporter from China Business Daily learned from the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission that the country has not recently received a plan to store copper.
At the same time, the reporter was also informed that the construction of the reserve mechanism for copper has started preparations, and it is expected that a fixed storage and storage mechanism will be established in the future as well as the rare earth. In the future, when the copper is stored and stored, the price and quantity of its storage and storage will be conducted in a confidential manner.
"The copper storage and storage plan is still under development. It will not be implemented in the near future. The future storage will focus on national economic security, and at the same time it will focus on the adjustment function of market prices. However, the specific operation procedures and data of copper storage and storage will be kept confidential." The relevant person of the raw material department of the Ministry of Industry and Information indicated.
The industry generally believes that the news of copper storage and storage shows that the management department is concerned about the domestic economic trend. The current high copper price does not obviously reflect the real demand of the copper market. In the second half of this year, the price of copper will continue to decline.
The timing of the reserve is undetermined. "The reserve mechanism is being studied and it does not mean that it will be implemented soon. Since it is a national reserve, it is not only to regulate the market, but also to consider national economic security. It is believed that the introduction of such reserve measures in the future will be the norm." On June 12th, the above-mentioned officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the Ministry of Industry told this reporter that he believed that the timing for the launch of copper storage and storage would depend on the price of copper and the economic environment.
“The market has always been controversial about storing copper or aluminum. Relative to aluminum, the price of copper has fluctuate more and has a wide range of industrial applications. It has always acted as a benchmark for basic metal raw materials. So the stability of copper prices is maintained for the entire industrial economy. The impact is far more strategic than the reserve of aluminum," said the official of the raw material department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Regarding whether or not copper is being collected and stored, it will also implement policies for the collection and storage of resource products such as rare earth and tungsten. The above-mentioned Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officials revealed that preliminary studies on the reserves of several metals such as rare earth and tungsten have already started. Still to be finalized with the NDRC.
“Such as the proposal for the reserve of rare earths was put forward as early as last May, and the reserve of tungsten was also confirmed at the beginning of this year, but they have not been formally launched until now,†said the MIIT official.
Market participants believe that the timing of purchasing and storage generally refers to the cost price of the product. Only when the price approaches or falls below the cost price is it suitable for storage.
At present, domestic copper prices are basically maintained within the range of 50,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan per ton. In terms of cost, the domestic production cost of electrolytic copper is between 30,000 and 40,000 yuan. The price of imported copper is between 25,000 and 30,000 yuan. Compared with the current market price of 50,000 to 60,000 yuan, there are still copper prices. Great down space.
Li Yusheng, a senior copper analyst at Beijing Antaike, said that copper prices are still high and there is no need to use storage to boost market prices.
“I think it is not appropriate to store copper now, but from the perspective of institution building, it is certainly necessary to start establishing a copper storage and storage mechanism.†Li Yusheng believes that when the price is still good, it may also be to respond to the impending economic situation. deterioration.
The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 9 showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in May increased by 3.0% from the same period last year, which is the lowest point in 23 months since July 2010, and the industrial producer price (PPI) It was down 1.4% year-on-year, of which non-ferrous metals prices fell by 6.2% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, both at low levels in recent years.
Regarding measures that will adopt rare earth-like management measures for some rare metals, a senior industry source told reporters: “Rare-earth management is now managed separately using domestic trade and foreign trade. In China, we implement a mandatory plan for mining and smelting, and adopt quotas for exports. It is expected that the storage and storage of copper will draw on the recovery and storage methods of rare earths, which currently use enterprise reserves, mine reserves, and national reserves in parallel, and copper may use the state reserves and corporate reserves in parallel to carry out secrets, because copper imports are large, so Using mine reserves is not realistic."
The mysterious reserve mechanism According to the reporter's understanding, the State Material Reserve Bureau (the National Development and Reform Commission's National Reserve Bureau), a specialized agency responsible for national material reserves, usually does not disclose its specific time and data when collecting and storing some important raw materials.
On April 16, 2009, the China Nonferrous Metals Association, which focused on copper storage, had publicly stated that “in three years, the country will store and store 1 million tons of aluminum, 400,000 tons of copper, and 400,000 tons of lead and zinc. However, due to the fact that the State Bureau of Material Reserve has not announced any information about the collection and storage of non-ferrous metals, so far, the collection and storage of non-ferrous metals such as aluminum and copper is still a mystery.
As for the upcoming new round of non-ferrous metals purchase and storage, the State Material Reserve Bureau remains silent. At the beginning of this year, the "12th Five-Year Development Plan for Non-ferrous Metals Industry" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not explicitly propose plans for non-ferrous metal reserves.
From the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2009, due to the financial crisis, Shanghai Copper plunged below 27,000 yuan per ton, and a large number of copper producers suffered serious losses. The country began to collect and store urgently. During the process of storing and storing non-ferrous metals such as copper for nearly half a year, an industry veteran told reporters that the amount of copper collected during that time may be much higher than the market expected, because at the beginning of the year There is still the last time that the state reserve copper was sold in the market. The impact of the State Reserve’s copper on copper prices is still on the way.
The above-mentioned person from the China Nonferrous Metals Association told the reporter that the plan for national reserves of non-ferrous metals was studied in 2009, but due to the impact of the 4 trillion stimulus plan, copper prices have been improving all the time. As a result, the plan for purchasing and storage has been temporarily put on hold. In his view, the resumption of copper storage and storage plans is largely influenced by the pessimistic expectations of the macro economy and has nothing to do with the current trend of copper prices.
It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission are generally divided into two categories when researching raw material reserves: one is raw materials that China is in serious shortage and needs to import, such as petroleum and copper, and the other is that China has abundant reserves and output, and exports a large number of products to meet international standards. Important raw materials that the market needs: such as rare earths.
According to Liu Libin, a senior copper analyst at Greening, if you look at the perspective of ****, it is necessary to store some of the important metals. The United States and Japan have such reserves. In addition to crude oil, China has no comprehensive reserve system for basic metal systems. Although copper and aluminum were purchased at the end of 2008, they were only used to boost market prices and were not considered for national economic security.
Affected by the economic downturn and adverse downstream demand, this year's domestic copper stocks hit a record high in the past decade.
The copper stocks disclosed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange show that as of June 8th, its copper stocks were 132,000 tons. Although it was 95,000 tons less than the peak value on March 16, the stocks in the bonded areas of the ports continued to increase. Has set a decade of copper inventory history of the highest value. On April 18, the World Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that there are 1.78 million tons of copper stocks in addition to bonded warehouse stocks, plus 550,000 tons of stocks in the bonded area. China’s copper stocks will exceed 2.3 million tons, reaching the highest ever.
** Copper is once again warming yet it is amazing that, even if domestic copper stocks are high and demand continues to shrink, imported copper is still being shipped to China.
According to statistics, China’s copper imports increased by 11.7% in May this year. With regard to the increase in imports, Mr. Guo, a Shanghai copper import trader, told this reporter that the sudden explosion in copper imports was caused by a large increase in copper. He told reporters that compared with the first four months of this year, the price of imported copper was poor. The price of 4,000 yuan per ton dropped to 600 yuan per ton. As the domestic situation is still grim, **copper has renewed its revival.
Public data shows that as of June 11th, LME’s total copper stocks in March were 235,200 tons. In order to meet China’s demand for copper, most of the stocks that were significantly reduced were shipped to China.
All respondents in the industry pointed out that the current downstream demand for copper is rather poor, even worse than the same period in 2009. According to statistics, in May the copper downstream industries, such as cable and household appliance industries, were generally under-utilized, and the average operating rate of power cable enterprises was only 73.4%. Although many projects in recent places have been approved, they have not yet been converted into actual demand.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on June 9, China’s industrial added value increased by 9.6% year-on-year in May, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.8%, which was lower than the expected increase of 9.9% and 14.3% respectively. At the same time, data from the previous month also appeared. Decline.
Mr. Guo, a copper import trading company in Shanghai, told reporters that the funds financed by copper financing are mostly used for the company's working capital, and the average time is 3 to 6 months. This reporter learned that, in addition to part of corporate finance for their own use, there are also part of the funds financed by copper into the tight real estate industry by means of lending. “The cost of financing copper is about 10% per annum, and the interest on its lending is generally lower than that of private citizens (approximately 15% to 20% per annum). Currently, companies that make copper are still profitable. ."
“According to the situation we understand, the average opening rate of downstream producers of copper is less than 40%, and most of the imported copper is in the hands of traders.†Mr. Guo believes that the short-term upswing is not sustainable, if the downstream demand Has been weak, ** copper is difficult to realize, this copper road will also die.
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