The central bank’s first cut in the deposit reserve ratio in the past three years has received much attention – how to look at the macro policy pre-adjustment and fine-tuning? GDP and CPI declined moderately, and the “pre-adjustment and fine-tuning†window opened on the evening of November 30. The People’s Bank of China announced that it will cut the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from December 5. This is the first time the central bank has lowered the deposit reserve ratio in the past three years. It shows that under the premise that the keynote remains unchanged, monetary policy is based on the development of the situation, and timely adjustment and fine-tuning. "Economic policy is stable and tight, so that China's economic operation has undergone changes in line with the expectations of macroeconomic regulation and control." Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed the economic situation and said that the current economic endogenous strength and economic fundamentals continue to improve. New features have also emerged in the economic operation. The timing of timely and appropriate fine-tuning of macroeconomic policies has matured. The price inflection point appears. Since the beginning of this year, the central government has repeatedly stressed that stabilizing the overall price level is the primary task of this year's macroeconomic regulation and control. At present, the momentum of excessive price increases has been initially contained, and the effect of the policy has gradually become apparent. In the three months of August, September and October, the CPI (Consumer Consumer Price Index) rose by 6.2%, 6.1% and 5.5% respectively. Compared with the 6.5% of the 37-month high in July, there was a significant drop. The price inflection point is obvious. The effect of the property market regulation has begun to show. The State Council has repeatedly issued a request to adhere to and strengthen the regulation of the property market. While increasing the supply of housing, it has restrained unreasonable housing demand. The property market regulation policy in the past two years has always maintained a high-pressure situation, and finally the property market began to show signs of falling in both volume and price. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in November showed that house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.14% in October, the first time the chain fell. In this regard, Peng Wensheng, chief economist of China International Capital Corporation, said that high property prices not only accelerated the accumulation of capital, but also formed a new imbalance in economic development, and the property market regulation could not be relaxed. Economic growth has slowed down. According to the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics for the first three quarters, GDP in the first, second and third quarters increased by 9.7%, 9.5% and 9.1% respectively. The leading indicator PMI (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index), which reflects the trend of economic growth, reflects the trend of further slowdown in economic growth. The latest PMI released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing fell to 5% from 50.4% in the previous month, and fell below the 50% threshold for the first time since March 2009. The CICC research report believes that the current economic growth stabilization is the result of active regulation. Economic growth is relatively stable, basically consistent with China's potential growth rate; economic growth in the fourth quarter will be further reduced due to weak external demand. Lu Zhongyuan believes that both the GDP growth rate and the CPI increase have moderately declined, creating conditions for the timely and moderate adjustment of the macro economy, and the window of pre-adjustment and fine-tuning opens. Timely and moderate, pre-adjustment and fine-tuning measures have been introduced in the context of new changes in economic operations. The State Council executive meeting held in late October clearly pointed out that it is necessary to grasp the direction, intensity and rhythm of macro-control, and grasp the economic trend sharply and accurately. The trend changes appearing, paying more attention to the pertinence, flexibility and forward-looking of the policy, and pre-adjusting and fine-tuning in a timely and appropriate manner. Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that under the conditions of unchanged fundamentals, monetary policy will be pre-adjusted and fine-tuned. The central bank will make some phased and structural relaxation under the framework of prudent monetary policy. This reduction in the deposit reserve ratio reflects this signal. The positive fiscal policy is also fine-tuned under the same conditions. The first is the pilot reform of the value-added tax, which is intended to be a structural tax cut. On October 26, the State Council executive meeting decided to start deepening the reform of the VAT system in some regions and industries from January 1, 2012, and gradually change the current industry tax collection to VAT. First in the Shanghai transportation industry and some modern service industries and other pilots, based on the current VAT 17% standard rate and 13% low tax rate, the new 11% and 6% two low tax rates. Second is the pilot of local debt, providing financing for local economic and social development. A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance issued the “Measures for Piloting Self-issuance of Local Governments in 2011â€, saying that with the approval of the State Council, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shenzhen in 2011 launched pilot projects for local governments to issue bonds themselves. Pre-tuning and fine-tuning is a necessary policy adjustment for the current economic situation. Lu Zhongyuan believes that China's economic growth rate will still be above 9% this year, and the fear of a "hard landing" is unnecessary. On the other hand, there is still uncertainty about the future price trend, and the foundation for price stability is still not solid. Under this circumstance, the basic orientation of macroeconomic regulation does not require major adjustments. Comprehensive use of economic leverage, grasping the macroeconomic policy orientation , macroeconomic policy pre-adjustment and fine-tuning is facing a more complex internal and external environment. Lu Zhongyuan said that changes in internal factors indicate that macroeconomic policies must stabilize economic growth while continuing to manage inflation expectations. In the face of the new characteristics of domestic and international economic operations, the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning should effectively handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation expectations, and not only suppress the excessively rapid rise in prices, but also prevent the economy from The growth rate has a big ups and downs. When talking about pre-tuning and fine-tuning to continue to stabilize prices, Lu Zhongyuan said that it is worth noting that food prices will once again become the driving factor for inflation. At present, the prices of the three types of products are likely to rise. First, agricultural products with slower productivity growth, second, real estate and other products that cannot be regulated by trade, and third, resource products. Responding to cost increases and imported inflationary pressures is not enough to rely solely on monetary policy. It also requires fiscal policy and structural adjustment. It also needs to be adjusted through competitive policies to encourage private economy and social capital to participate in market competition and promote price decline. When talking about the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning to balance steady growth, Peng Wensheng said that China needs to maintain a reasonable growth rate. At the moment, the focus of economic work should be placed in areas where there are prominent contradictions in economic operations. It is necessary to maintain a reasonable growth in the total amount of money and credit, optimize the financing structure, and improve the level of financial services. Improve fiscal and taxation policies and promote structural tax cuts. Continue to take effective measures to stabilize the overall price level. We will maintain the continuity and stability of foreign trade policies and strive to promote the steady growth and basic balance of foreign trade. In addition, the credit policy should be better integrated with the industrial policy, and truly guaranteed. Lu Zhongyuan said that China's economic growth is in a short-term correction and is still in the normal range. The macroeconomic policy orientation can be considered to maintain the same tone, but should be further targeted, flexible and forward-looking, and fiscal and monetary policies should be synergistic.
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