Abstract Chinese Minister of International Economic and Exchange Center for Economic Research Department Hong Xu was 19 at the China International Economic and Exchange Center on 82 "economic monthly to talk about" means, in order to meet the objective requirements of the smooth development of the real economy, RRR is imperative that this year. ..
Xu Hongcai, director of the Economic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said on the 19th "Economic Monthly Talks" of the China International Economic Exchange Center that in order to meet the objective requirements of the stable development of the real economy, the RRR is imperative, at the end of April this year. It is very likely that the RRR will be lowered again before. On April 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the main economic statistics of China in the first quarter. According to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2016 was 1,582.6 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 6.7%.
"The economic data of the first quarter shows that the current economic growth is running smoothly within a reasonable range, and the start is good, and there is a good trend of structural optimization, quality improvement and efficiency improvement," Xu Hongcai said.
In the future, in terms of macroeconomic policies, Xu Hongcai believes that the overall tone of stability and stability will not change, and fiscal policy will be more active. This year's fiscal deficit will be further expanded to about 3%. In particular, structural tax cuts will be further expanded from May. This year, we will reduce taxes by about 500 billion yuan to allow enterprises to go lightly. This is also a supply-side structural reform. .
"Future monetary policy will remain neutral and loose." Xu Hongcai said that this year's M2 growth target is set at around 13%. Since we are basically negative interest rates, and further interest rate cuts may trigger encouragement of capital outflows, this year's basic There is no room for interest rate cuts, but the RRR is imperative.
Xu Hongcai said that in March this year, the statutory deposit reserve ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, and the base currency of 700 billion yuan was released. According to the currency multiplier of 4.3 times -4.4 times, we have 3 trillion yuan of broad money to pass the RRR cut. To release, it is more appropriate to lower the adjustment in 5-6 times to ensure the reasonable liquidity of the money market. "It is expected that before May 1st, it is very likely that the RRR will be lowered before the end of April. This is also an objective requirement for the stable development of the real economy."
"The economic operation in the next few months of this year can still be expected. In the short term, the economy has shown signs of stabilization. It is expected to remain at 6.8% in the second and third quarters, or 6.7% in the fourth quarter. Overall, this year's economy The growth evaluation level is around 6.7%. "Xu Hongcai believes that since the Chinese economy entered the new normal, the economic growth momentum, the new and old power shifts, the overall momentum tends to weaken and slow down. In the next five years, the economic growth rate of 6.5%-7.0% is expected. Xu Hongcai said.
"It can be said that the world economy has entered a new normal of low-speed growth." Chen Wenling, chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that under such a background, China is still the main force driving the growth of the world economy. China's GDP accounts for 14% of the world's total, international trade accounts for 13.2% of the world's total, and China's manufacturing industry accounts for 25% of the world's total. The annual increase is still around 800 billion yuan, equivalent to the total amount of countries such as Indonesia and Turkey. China is now implementing the “One Belt, One Road†strategy and building a community of destiny, a community of interests and a community of responsibility with more countries. More countries will have new opportunities for investment and development. In addition, China's industrial structure has undergone a very big change. The tertiary industry has reached 50.5%, and the service industry has surpassed the manufacturing industry. In the "troika", consumption accounted for 69.4%, which became the first driving force for China's economic growth.
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