The performance of home furnishing and home decoration is very eye-catching, and a certain proportion of home consumption during the Spring Festival has been transferred to the Internet.
Alibaba also has an economic report for the Spring Festival of 2019, but did not specifically disclose the transactions of furniture, building materials and home improvement.
What is reflected in the information quoted above? The author believes that the start of 2019 is not very bad. The overall prosperity of the industry is somewhat reduced, which will affect the offline business of a small number of enterprises, mainly because offline business is more affected.
The sales of e-commerce for home furnishing and home improvement have performed so well, indicating that customer traffic and consumption habits are still shifting online. The combination of online and offline, in fact, the situation in the industry is not bad.
It's just that things haven't been so good without catching on the new traffic flow.
More than a week after Canaan Art 2019 started, three voices were heard:
One voice is that the business is worse than last year, no one comes from the store every day, and there was a deal last year.
Another voice is that there have been deals one after another. This year's sales started. The owners started to prepare for decoration. Whether the business is good or not depends on their own abilities and the brand's appeal.
There is also a voice that compared with last year, I feel that there is no change, and I plan to engage in some promotions to seize the peak season in March .
The time was pushed back to January , and the situation was not good. The National Building Materials Home Furnishing Index ( BHI ) was 73.99 , a decrease of 19.74 points from the previous month and a decrease of 5.83 points from the same period last year.
National-scale home building materials store sales of 61.7 billion yuan in January, down 32.88 percent, down 9.46 percent year on year.
It's okay for the chain to fall. After all, the month before the Spring Festival and the month where the Spring Festival is in, the business must have deteriorated.
But the year-on-year decline still shows that the situation is indeed not very good. When the national market fell by a few points, it was equivalent to billions of dollars gone, and it was distributed to stores, meaning that in January , some dealers' business had already exploded.
It is estimated that the situation in February will not be reversed too much. After all, during the Spring Festival, there was basically no transaction in the physical stores. The start of work is often concentrated around February 10 .
However, everyone should note that the online home furnishing business is not bad. JD.com previously released a consumption data for the Spring Festival, which was unexpected. Their conclusion is:
1 sales ranking Top5 category: mobile communications, office computers, household appliances, clothing footwear and home furnishings home improvement.
2. Compared with the same period of last year, the top 5 categories with the fastest year-on-year sales growth are: kitchenware ( 399% ), home furniture and home improvement ( 185% ), gift bags ( 148% ), local life / tourism ( 107% ), Medicine and health care ( 83% ).
Several points of analysis are as follows:
(1) 300 city-built data based on completion of the area and Orville cloud network to track the amount submitted is expected to be completed in 2019 than in 2018 to improve, demand for renovation will increase, driven home business performance bottomed out in 2019 before and after the second quarter. At the same time, the sales area of ​​new houses on the first and second tiers is expected to improve in 2019 .
( 2 ) The second-hand housing transactions we have tracked in the top 10 cities have recovered somewhat in the second half of 2018 , and 2019 is expected to continue to improve under the impetus of demand and real estate policies.
( 3 ) The change of real estate policy due to the city may bring about the relaxation of regulation in some cities.
( 4 ) The logic of increasing the concentration of home furnishing enterprises is still established. After the brutal development period of channel dividends is completed, empowering dealers will become a new growth driver.
The above judgment is still relatively objective, in line with most institutions' judgment on the trend of the pan-furniture industry.
The author should add that in January 2019 , the sales of some leading real estate companies are declining, but some second-tier housing companies have grown magnificently. This change is worthy of our attention. For example, for engineering orders, we cannot just focus on leading houses Enterprises must consider regional and second-tier housing companies as key targets. Of course, they must pay attention to the cash flow of developers and be healthy.
In addition, the concentration of the home market will continue to rise, and the dividends of traditional channels are seldom very few. Simply empowering dealers cannot be a new growth driver. Distributors themselves have limitations, and most of what they can do is to open a shop, then find customers, talk about customers, and provide services.
As an enterprise, besides distributors, we must seize the growing potential channels of supply chain platforms, fine decoration, apartments, rental housing, and whole decoration.
Big Materials Research Deng Chaoming also made several analyses of the industry situation, the main points are as follows:
( 1 ) Under the keynote of “one city, one city, one policy†in the property market, local governments can formulate property market policies according to their own conditions, and it is not ruled out that there are successive local fine-tuning policies.
At present, the two conferences of various provinces and cities have been held successively, and their positions on real estate are almost the same. The main line is that the house is used for living, not for speculation. At the same time, it emphasizes stable land prices, stable house prices, stable expectations, and the goal is to maintain the stability of the real estate market. .
What does stability mean? It means that house prices are unlikely to rise rapidly, and there will be no large fluctuations in transaction volume. Of course, house prices may fall a little, but there will not be a sharp decline. Maintaining on the basis of 2018 , there may be a slight increase, and some cities will decline slightly .
The real estate boom is not a problem. New construction, completion and delivery are stable, and the market space of the natural home building materials and decoration industry will not be compressed.
( 2 ) Does the industry's prosperity stabilize, which means that everyone's life will not be too uncomfortable?
Not necessarily, most people's lives can still live, and a few can't live. Market concentration will rise further, and companies that account for 20% of the total will live very well. 80% of listed home furnishing companies are expected to maintain a growth rate of at least 20% in 2019 .
Among the leading companies that are not listed, such as Hengjie, Jiumu, Zhanchen, Wrigley Sanitary Ware, etc., most of them should be able to maintain this increase.
However, those 20% small and medium-sized enterprises in the tail will have a very uncomfortable life, and the number of failures should not be less than in 2018 .
Even so, there will still be a large number of emerging companies. According to the author's prediction, it may be concentrated in these areas. The market is quite mature and the opportunity space is relatively large.
For example: home building materials supply chain, new home furnishing tools, smart lighting, smart locks, smart toilets, system sanitary ware, top wall integration, light luxury furniture, prefabricated interiors, etc.
( 3 ) The delivery rate of finished houses will also increase. In 2018 , the country will be about 25% , the first-tier cities will be more than 70% , some data show that it is about 90%, and the second-tier cities are about 50% . Continue to rise.
Certainly decoration companies will continue to close, but the increase in the proportion of hardcover rooms does not mean that the decoration market is sluggish.
Even in the first-tier cities where the decoration and delivery are very high, many companies still survive, some of them are leading companies, and they have opened chains across the country, such as Beijing Dongyi Risheng, Longfa Decoration, etc., but all survived with diamond , Can live porcelain.
Either take the order from the developer, or do the old house and N times decoration business, or take the renovation and decoration of the finished house. A certain percentage of middle- and high-income property owners will knock out finished houses delivered by developers and renovate them.
( 4 ) Diversified channels, once again diverting the attention of buyers, the source of orders is further dispersed, including finished houses (hardcover rooms), whole decoration, big home stores, home stores, new retail stores, Tmall, Jingdong, Pinduoduo, Community group purchases, etc.
It must be outside the channel of the store, firmly grasp two or three places, the future may not worry.
Of course, the national chain or local leading home furnishing stores such as Red Star Macalline, Actual House, Fusenmei, Daming Palace, etc. are still the core channels and sources of traffic.
However, the stores in the store are polarized, and some stores have no customers. Every year, the store is about leaving people, and two kinds of abilities are tested: First, can you grab customers in the store? The second is whether we can get out of the store and grab customers in the vast world.
( 5 ) The impact of new categories and new models, such as whole-house customization, smart home, self-contained, system sanitary ware, integrated wall, etc., are all in the market development stage, becoming mature, do you follow?
Do you have the strength to follow? How to cut in? If you are a distributor, how to cut in? Test our wisdom and mobility.
Can't you do it? It may not work, you have to think about the business in 5 or 10 years.
The author's suggestion is that under conditions, new categories, new models and new technologies must be followed, and it is unwise to exclude or deny them. Choose your own sure entry point, plunge in, and do it.
More information on the home furnishing industry is on GO Jiaju!
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