Recently, at the 2010 Stuttgart International Metalworking Exhibition (AMB2010), Wilfried Schäfer, executive director of the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW), analyzed the development status of the German machine tool industry and predicted the development prospects of the industry.
In the first half of 2010, the economic data presented by the German machine tool industry were better than expected, especially as market demand increased again. Capacity utilization and order volume have gradually recovered from the lowest valley. Machine tool exports also stopped falling in the second quarter. Despite this, German machine tool production will still show negative growth this year.
Specifically, in the first half of 2010, German machine tool orders increased by 58% year-on-year, with local orders up 51% and overseas orders up 61%. In particular, processing technology has benefited from a 75% increase in the prosperity of orders. In the first six months of this year, overseas orders have doubled. The molding technology has grown by 25% and is mainly supplied to the automotive industry, so the business is very active. Due to the long period of the previous negotiation and the long time and high cost of the design phase, it takes longer for the forming business to complete. Molding processing accounts for about 27% of total production.
In July, the industry's capacity utilization rate rose to 76.3%, 10 percentage points higher than the same period in 2009. At the same time, orders in hand began to climb, with orders at the end of June at 6.9 months. However, from June to July, industry employees fell again after a slight rebound in two consecutive months, reaching 63,100. According to the ifo research, more and more companies will not reduce the number of employees in the next three months.
Although all the data has grown again and moved in the right direction, machine tool production in the first half of the year still fell by 20% year-on-year. This is because the machine tool industry, which is the “heart†of manufacturing, is a late-cycle industry that is more elusive than its customers. According to Ifo's research, after 2009, the industrial and trade business climate of the downstream user industry began to pick up steadily. From January to July 2010, its orders increased by more than 25%. Among them, machinery and equipment manufacturing, aerospace technology, metal processing and production industries have shown a gradual prosperity; metal products manufacturing, electronics industry and automobile industry also showed growth.
At present, many users have raised their production expectations, and mechanical manufacturing has recently increased its growth rate from 3 percentage points to 6 percentage points. Despite this, the increase in orders does not equal the increase in turnover, so the output value of German machine tools will still decline this year. In the machine tool industry, the production cycle can range from 6 weeks to 2 years. Moreover, many orders cannot be completed this year, especially in the current situation where the supply of many parts and components is in short supply. Therefore, VDW expects German machine tool production to decline by 12% to around 9 million Euros in 2010, which will certainly create the lowest value in recent years.
In the first half of the year, the main driver of German machine tool demand growth came from overseas orders. According to preliminary statistics, orders from the BRIC countries including Brazil, Russia, India and China are growing. At the same time, investment from South Korea and Japan showed a significant increase. Orders from the largest market for machine tools in Germany, Europe, continue to increase, especially in Switzerland, Austria, Poland and Italy. The growth in overseas demand is also clearly reflected in the increase in exports. Exports in the second quarter of 2010 reached the level of the same period last year, but due to the lack of recovery in the first quarter, overall exports in the first half of the year still fell by 13%. The most important driving force in the Asian market comes from China, and the status of the Chinese market will continue to strengthen in the future. At present, German machine tools export more than 1/4 of their total exports to China, while the Asian market accounts for about 40% of the total.
As the world's strongest machine tool industry, the German industry is recovering faster than expected and better than its competitors.
In the first half of 2010, the economic data presented by the German machine tool industry were better than expected, especially as market demand increased again. Capacity utilization and order volume have gradually recovered from the lowest valley. Machine tool exports also stopped falling in the second quarter. Despite this, German machine tool production will still show negative growth this year.
Specifically, in the first half of 2010, German machine tool orders increased by 58% year-on-year, with local orders up 51% and overseas orders up 61%. In particular, processing technology has benefited from a 75% increase in the prosperity of orders. In the first six months of this year, overseas orders have doubled. The molding technology has grown by 25% and is mainly supplied to the automotive industry, so the business is very active. Due to the long period of the previous negotiation and the long time and high cost of the design phase, it takes longer for the forming business to complete. Molding processing accounts for about 27% of total production.
In July, the industry's capacity utilization rate rose to 76.3%, 10 percentage points higher than the same period in 2009. At the same time, orders in hand began to climb, with orders at the end of June at 6.9 months. However, from June to July, industry employees fell again after a slight rebound in two consecutive months, reaching 63,100. According to the ifo research, more and more companies will not reduce the number of employees in the next three months.
Although all the data has grown again and moved in the right direction, machine tool production in the first half of the year still fell by 20% year-on-year. This is because the machine tool industry, which is the “heart†of manufacturing, is a late-cycle industry that is more elusive than its customers. According to Ifo's research, after 2009, the industrial and trade business climate of the downstream user industry began to pick up steadily. From January to July 2010, its orders increased by more than 25%. Among them, machinery and equipment manufacturing, aerospace technology, metal processing and production industries have shown a gradual prosperity; metal products manufacturing, electronics industry and automobile industry also showed growth.
At present, many users have raised their production expectations, and mechanical manufacturing has recently increased its growth rate from 3 percentage points to 6 percentage points. Despite this, the increase in orders does not equal the increase in turnover, so the output value of German machine tools will still decline this year. In the machine tool industry, the production cycle can range from 6 weeks to 2 years. Moreover, many orders cannot be completed this year, especially in the current situation where the supply of many parts and components is in short supply. Therefore, VDW expects German machine tool production to decline by 12% to around 9 million Euros in 2010, which will certainly create the lowest value in recent years.
In the first half of the year, the main driver of German machine tool demand growth came from overseas orders. According to preliminary statistics, orders from the BRIC countries including Brazil, Russia, India and China are growing. At the same time, investment from South Korea and Japan showed a significant increase. Orders from the largest market for machine tools in Germany, Europe, continue to increase, especially in Switzerland, Austria, Poland and Italy. The growth in overseas demand is also clearly reflected in the increase in exports. Exports in the second quarter of 2010 reached the level of the same period last year, but due to the lack of recovery in the first quarter, overall exports in the first half of the year still fell by 13%. The most important driving force in the Asian market comes from China, and the status of the Chinese market will continue to strengthen in the future. At present, German machine tools export more than 1/4 of their total exports to China, while the Asian market accounts for about 40% of the total.
As the world's strongest machine tool industry, the German industry is recovering faster than expected and better than its competitors.
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