According to the 21st Century Business Herald, the data compiled by the Shanxi Provincial Coal Department shows that the average contract price of the 5,500 kcal standard thermal coal in 2011 is expected to be 490 yuan / ton. Compared with the contract price last year, the price rose by 40 yuan / ton. The news also said that people familiar with the matter have confirmed the price of 490 yuan / ton for the price of the car.
At present, the price of Datong superior blended coal Qinhuangdao of 5,500 kcal has reached 775 yuan / ton, deducting the additional cost of 120-150 yuan (freight, yard fee, shipping fee, etc.), the lowest price of the coal is 625 yuan / ton Compared with the contract price of 490 yuan, there is still a large price difference, and the increase in spot price is obviously higher than the contract price increase.
The industry forecasts released by many research institutions are still optimistic that coal prices will continue to be strong. According to the above news, BOC International predicts that the domestic benchmark price of thermal coal will increase by 9% and 14% respectively in this year and next year; GF Securities will judge that the coal price increase in 2011 is expected to be above 15%.
Some coal experts admit that since Shanxi is a large coal province, the annual turnover has accounted for more than half of the national total, about 70%. Therefore, Shanxi's coal pricing will affect the coal trend in the next year to some extent.
Coal-fired power companies hope that the increase should not be too high. After all, about 50% of the power plants are still suffering from rising coal prices. They hope that the increase can be controlled within 5%.
Since the opinions of coal and electricity on coal prices have not been uniform, CEC expects that January 2011 will be the most prominent period of contradiction between supply and demand of coal, and in 2010, the consumption of coal for power generation and heating in national power plants may be consumed. More than 1.7 billion tons.
The data shows that in 2010, the total amount of coal purchase and sales contracts in Shanxi Province was 388 million tons. According to the Shanxi Coal Department, it is expected that this will increase by more than 400 million tons in 2011.
According to optimistic estimates by the industry, in 2011, the railway capacity plan for coal will reach more than 1 billion tons, an increase of more than 100 million tons from this year. Therefore, the price of the large enterprises such as Shenhua and China Coal, which have the most capacity, will be the benchmark price of coal prices for the 2011 national coal negotiations.
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