In 2004, the domestic and foreign aluminum price trends were severely divided. Comparing the trend of electrolytic aluminum prices at home and abroad in 2004, the national macro-control in April 2004 was a watershed. The domestic aluminum price was in a slump, hovering around 16,000 yuan/ton, which is in stark contrast to the steady rise in international aluminum prices. In short, the rise in international aluminum prices is mainly due to the strong growth of the global economy, especially the U.S. economy, and the supply and demand situation of aluminum has shifted from a surplus to a shortage. In addition, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, other basic metals and raw materials, and rising energy prices are also important driving factors. . In contrast, the continuing weakness in the domestic aluminum market is mainly attributed to three factors: serious overcapacity, uncertainties in industry regulation and export policies, and appreciation of the renminbi. In 2004, the supply and demand of the global aluminum market benefited from the rapid growth of the world economy due to surplus supply and shortage. In 2004, the consumption of primary aluminum showed strong growth in all regions (the total increase was around 10%), especially in aluminum consumption in the United States, China, and Japan. The performance of big countries is more prominent. In contrast, although China’s primary aluminum output still increased significantly, due to the number of strikes, production of North American primary aluminum production fell sharply, constraining the growth of global output to a certain extent, and eventually causing the primary aluminum market to fall short of supply (preliminary It is estimated that the gap is about 300,000 tons. It has reversed the surplus that has lasted for three years. The basic reasons for the global "a bull market" in the electrolytic aluminum market in 2005 are as follows: 1) The global economic growth rate in 2005 will fall slightly from the previous year. The growth of aluminum demand in major consumer countries, led by the United States, China, and Japan, is expected to slow down. The total consumption of primary aluminum was close to 31.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and over 10% in the previous year. 2) The growth of global primary aluminum production in 2005 is expected to change China's “one country with one show†situation. Aluminum output in the Western world will continue to rise under the resumption of idle production capacity in North America. It is estimated that the total output of primary aluminum in the world will reach 31.2 million tons. , a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. Based on the above judgment, it is expected that the global primary aluminum market will continue to be in short supply in 2005. Given that the US dollar weak consolidation situation is unlikely to change in the short-to-medium term, the primary aluminum prices will remain strong and the average annual price will be US$1810/tonne. It also does not rule out the possibility of falling aluminum prices due to the decline in the prices of bulk raw materials. From 2006 to 2008, the global aluminum market will once again go into surplus. It is expected that the supply and demand of the global electrolytic aluminum market will reach a balance in 2006 and there will be a surplus again in 2007. With the reversal of supply and demand conditions in the aluminum market and the fall in alumina prices, aluminum prices will also enter a downward path. In 2005, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market will remain in the doldrums. Although the pace of integration, restructuring, and survival of the fittest in the electrolytic aluminum industry will be significantly accelerated in 2005, there are still 1.2 million tons of new production capacity not put into production in 2004, plus part of 2005. With the completion of production capacity, it is expected that domestic aluminum production will exceed 7.5 million tons, an increase of about 10% year-on-year. Based on the judgment that the growth rate of GDP and fixed asset investment fell slightly in 2005, and the downstream major areas such as real estate and autos have slowed the growth in aluminum demand, it is expected that domestic aluminum consumption will reach 6.64 million tons, which is an increase of approximately 11% over the previous year. In addition, due to the implementation of the “Abolition of Export Tax Rebates for Aluminum Exports and the Accrual of 5% Tariffsâ€, the net export of aluminum is expected to decline by half from the previous year to a level of 30,000-30,000 tons. In summary, the serious overcapacity of electrolytic aluminum in China in 2005 is still an objective reality that cannot be ignored. The adjustment of export policies is tantamount to worsening, and the aluminum market will continue its downturn. At the same time, the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to show no signs of dissipating or relieving metal prices. It is expected that the domestic and foreign aluminum prices will continue to deviate from the trend in 2004, and the price will further shrink. Electrolytic aluminum companies will still struggle in 2005. According to estimates by industry professionals, domestic electrolytic aluminum companies lost more than 80% in 2004. Undoubtedly, electrolytic aluminum companies will continue to suffer during the cold night in 2005. The industry operations of the industry are generally faced with high alumina prices (recession will be very slow) and the negative impact of adjustment of export tax rebate policy (the domestic aluminum prices continue to deviate from the aluminum prices of LME, and The direct increase in export costs, and coal-electricity linkages have led to further pressure on the possibility of further increases in electricity prices. The efficiency is not optimistic. Optimistic expectations in 2006 the domestic electrolytic aluminum market will come out of trough. With the further elimination of some backward production capacity in the next year or two and the closure of some small enterprises, the drop in alumina prices, the easing of electricity supply problems and a new round of upswing in downstream demand, it is optimistic that domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to emerge from the continuing downturn in 2006 Situation, domestic supply and demand of aluminum in 2007 and 2008 will be significantly improved.
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