From 2000 to the present, the quarterly GDP growth rate between China and the United States and the international copper price of copper continued to rewrite history in February. London Copper hit a record high of US$10,190/t, Shanghai Copper also hit a new high in more than three years, and was subsequently controlled by China’s liquidity and the situation in the Middle East. Unknown impact, shocks fall back. The latest (February 21st) CFTC’s report on US copper positions showed that the total number of positions fell slightly to 159,468 lots, and the current net increase was 29,039 lots, which remained near the high level.
As of February 22, the total stocks of the three major exchanges' copper holding positions entered the February 2011 position and showed signs of slight outflows. The positions held after the Shanghai copper festival continued to fall and were affected by domestic recycling liquidity. After the holiday season, Shanghai copper positions once rose to 354456, and then continued to fall back to 319,842; LME held 297,917 lots of hands and fell slightly, maintaining a high position.
First, the central bank tightened monetary policy to suppress inflation. The US GDP growth in 2010 was 2.9%, which is the fastest economic growth rate in the United States in five years. The employment market and real estate market, which have limited the strength and strength of the US economic rebound, have improved. Last year, China’s GDP grew by 10.3%, and this year it is expected to remain at more than 9%. The overall operating situation is good. Japan’s GDP totaled about 5.37 trillion U.S. dollars last year, allowing China to retreat to the third place in the world, and its economic aggregate is still huge; overall, the global economic growth has not changed and this year’s global economic growth is still expected to exceed 3%.
In January 2011, the total consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.9% year-on-year, which was a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. This is significantly lower than the previous market's expectations. The continuing increase in CPI has caused domestic tightening policies to occur frequently.
On the evening of February 8, the People’s Bank of China announced that it will increase the benchmark interest rate of financial institutions from February 9 onwards. The one-year benchmark deposit rate of financial institutions will be raised by 0.25 percentage point, respectively, including a one-year benchmark deposit rate. Raised to 3%, the benchmark interest rate for one year ** reached 6.06%. The benchmark interest rates for other grades are adjusted accordingly. This is the first time the central bank has raised interest rates during the year and since October last year.
Afterwards, the central bank announced on February 18 that it raised the reserve requirement by 0.5% again, and further tightened monetary policy. The main intention of this adjustment may be two, one is to restrain commercial banks from lending, and the other is to target inflation that is still on the rise path. Both of these intents and the corresponding macroeconomic background suggest that the relatively abundant liquidity situation may continue for a period of time, at least in the short term. A series of domestic recycling liquidity policies show that domestic countries face strong inflationary pressures, and the euro zone and developing countries have already had different levels of early warning signs of inflation. This expectation will increase the volatility of copper-based industrial products.
Second, China's manufacturing slowdown Europe and the United States accelerated February 14 OECD organizations announced the latest indicators, the latest OECD indicators show that the developed countries have expanded again, the emerging market indicators have slightly dropped back from September to October the world economy since the second quarter of 2010 ( Q2) The beginning of the slowing trend showed signs of stabilizing, and the developed countries' economy entered the expansion period again. According to the OECD's leading indicator for December, the revised OECD countries' leading indicators rose by 0.3 points month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded by 2.2 points. From the data of various countries, the economic expansion of the United States, Japan, and Germany has shown signs of further acceleration, and the OECD's year-on-year growth rate of 2010M10 has bottomed out. The "BRIC countries" basically remained the same as or slightly declined from the previous month, and economic expansion slowed down under the government's control. China fell 0.2% month-on-month and fell for two consecutive months.
Global PMI continued to rise 1.6 points to 57.2 in January. The global new manufacturing demand in 2010Q2 (April) reached a stage high, and Q2~Q3 (May to September) slowed down from the high level. However, after October, the overall manufacturing industry entered the expansion period again, and inflationary pressures gradually accumulated.
On February 1, 2011, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 52.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. Following the December of last year, the PMI index continued to fall in January, indicating that the recent economic stabilization trend is not yet clear, and there is a possibility of continuing correction. Taken together, the current economic operation is still in a state of readjustment, and various control policies will be intensively introduced. In the near future, the price of nonferrous metals will intensify.
The U.S. PMI rose again in January, indicating that the U.S. economy's growth momentum after 2011Q1 has obviously improved. All the indicators have improved, inventory has dropped and new demand has increased; the unfinished orders have meant that there is ample room for improvement in employment; inflationary pressures have risen. Given the recent improvement in the Fed currency meeting statement, real estate, and the employment market, the probability of the Fed expanding its quantitative easing scale has been greatly reduced. After the economy entered the 2011Q1, the growth rate of the chain continued to recover, and the economic growth momentum was clearly stronger. We continued to focus on the subsequent growth of the employment and real estate markets.
Third, the US real estate market rises in the US real estate market. In January, the number of new housing starts soared by 14.6% qoq to 596,000 households, which was higher than market expectations. This indicates that new housing starts will be stabilized after the government's preferential policies are over, and the probability of bottoming out will increase in the future. . In December, there was a noticeable rebound in home sales, a 17.5% increase from the previous month, and there was a clear sign of a bottoming up.
In December, there was a noticeable rebound in home sales: In December, new home sales increased by 17.5% from the previous quarter to 329,000 units, which was higher than the market’s expected 300,000; the year-on-year decline narrowed significantly from 24% to 7.6%; inventory was down by 4.2% from the previous month. Inventory takes 8.1 months, down from 8.2 in the previous month. At the same time, in December, existing home sales surged by 12.3% qoq, better than market expectations; the year-on-year decline narrowed from 27.6% to 2.9%, and the signs of bottoming up were very clear. Existing stocks fell by 4.2% qoq to 3.56 million units; sales took 8.1 months, down from 9.5 months in the previous month. At present, the impact of tax incentives on housing sales has passed and the renewed recovery of the property market has already occurred!
In the US housing market, old home sales are the main force, and its sales account for about 85% of the total sales of the entire housing market. Since the collapse of the US real estate bubble in early 2006, the housing market has been drastically adjusted and has become the root cause of the financial crisis. The gradual improvement of the housing market is expected to lead the Fed’s policy forward.
Fourth, the ** high position fell slightly by the February 21, 2011 announced by the CFTC the latest US copper position data can be clearly seen, COMEX copper positions to lighten up more than 3,000 single-week week, the total position held a record high after a slight decline in the current Still within the range of high positions, the net long positions increased from 23,912 at the end of January to 29,039 hands, and the interest of net long positions increased. On February 21, the total positions were 159,468 lots. Positions maintained at a relatively high level, indicating that the latter is still optimistic about the copper market in the later period, and it is still expected to continue the upward trend after the short-term adjustment.
V. China's copper imports in January exceeded expectations. According to customs information, China’s unforged copper and copper imports amounted to 364,200 tons in January, an increase of 19,600 tons from 334,600 tons in December 2010, an increase of 5.71%. The year-on-year increase of 24.70%. China imported 245616 tons of refined copper in January, an increase of 24.5% year-on-year. In December 2010, the import volume was 228609 tons. In January, China's copper concentrate imports fell by 4.3% from the same period last year to 571,005 tons. China’s copper concentrate imports in January rose by 18% from 485055t in December last year.
The main reasons for the increase in imports in January are: First, since the beginning of February is the traditional Chinese Spring Festival holiday, both copper processing companies and end-consumer companies will carry out a certain amount of stocking. This part of the demand for stocking has increased the number of domestic enterprises to import. Copper and imported copper demand. Second, since there was some optimism about the holiday season and post-holiday copper price movements, speculators therefore made some speculative buying before the holiday season. In addition, the ratio of Shanghai and London in January slightly recovered, basically fluctuating between 7.4 and 7.5, and improved compared with December. Finally, many importers of copper have loosened their prices due to funds or liquidation, and imported copper has risen to the low of US$25 to US$30 per tonne, which has attracted some buying into the market.
Since February, the market has not completely recovered from the holiday atmosphere until mid-February, and the import market transactions have been holding a light situation. Affected by this, although the ratio of the two cities has continued to improve in the near future, it is expected that China will not forge in February. The import volume of copper and copper will fall back to a level of around 250,000 t.
6. Increment of stocks Copper price growth slowed LME (London Exchange) copper stocks began to increase gradually from December 2010, ending the downward trend of consecutive inventory for 10 months. London stocks continued to rise from around 340,000 t in December last year. As of February 21, London stocks have risen to 411,475t. Corresponding to inventories is cancellation of warehouse receipts, cancellation of warehouse receipts continues to fall, cancellation of inventory receipts inventory ratio from the previous 8% to 9% to 3% to 4%, in particular, cancellation of warehouse receipts in Asia maintains 0, shows From the pressure of inventory, the spot is relatively abundant. It is expected that with the end of the Lunar New Year and the start of the holiday season, market demand is expected to recover and inventory pressure will ease in March. At the same time, LME gradually reduced from the premium, indicating that the short-term shortage of spot situation has eased, the premium is between 2 to 8 US dollars. According to the sub-items, the inventory in the Americas and Europe began to flow out slightly in February, and Asian inventories inflowed sharply. As for cancellation of warehouse receipts, the Americas and European regions increased slightly, while Asia maintained a zero, indicating that the demand in Europe and the United States was weak in Asia.
VII. Outlook After entering the market, the price of copper still maintained a turbulent uptrend in 2011. In early February, Lunbron set a new record high of US$10,160/t, followed by a downturn. The strength of US economic data and the copper supply gap will widen in 2011. This is the main reason for the rise in copper prices. The geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East and the recovery of domestic liquidity have dampened the upward trend of copper prices.
From the perspective of the international environment, the economic recovery of the United States, Europe and other countries entered an accelerated period in 2011. Both the OECD index and the PMI index reflecting the manufacturing industry showed that the European and American regions have come from behind. In contrast, the domestic situation is completely opposite. The manufacturing index has continued to decline for three months, and the economic dominance will be returned to Europe and the United States in 2011. The Chinese government’s move to reclaim liquidity shows that China is determined to curb inflation and the market has experienced some degree of volatility.
With the improvement of real estate and employment data released by the United States, there is reason to believe that in 2011, the United States will gradually withdraw from the quantitative easing monetary policy, the rising price of crude oil will also cause potential inflation in developed countries, and recycling liquidity will hit market speculation. Enthusiasm, but this is only a short-term effect, behind the recovery of liquidity is the economy gradually on the right track.
For the copper market, the supply and demand side is still strong, metal attributes and financial attributes will continue to dominate the market, short-term pressure from the policy side to become the main reason for the adjustment of copper prices into March, the consumer season will limit the price adjustment space, short-term concern about 70000 ~ Support of 72,000 yuan, is expected to limit the adjustment is limited, the copper price is expected to usher in a high level of shocks, the pressure above the 75,000 to 76,000 yuan, maintaining a high level of consolidation pattern, the possibility of continuing high innovation is greater.
As of February 22, the total stocks of the three major exchanges' copper holding positions entered the February 2011 position and showed signs of slight outflows. The positions held after the Shanghai copper festival continued to fall and were affected by domestic recycling liquidity. After the holiday season, Shanghai copper positions once rose to 354456, and then continued to fall back to 319,842; LME held 297,917 lots of hands and fell slightly, maintaining a high position.
First, the central bank tightened monetary policy to suppress inflation. The US GDP growth in 2010 was 2.9%, which is the fastest economic growth rate in the United States in five years. The employment market and real estate market, which have limited the strength and strength of the US economic rebound, have improved. Last year, China’s GDP grew by 10.3%, and this year it is expected to remain at more than 9%. The overall operating situation is good. Japan’s GDP totaled about 5.37 trillion U.S. dollars last year, allowing China to retreat to the third place in the world, and its economic aggregate is still huge; overall, the global economic growth has not changed and this year’s global economic growth is still expected to exceed 3%.
In January 2011, the total consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.9% year-on-year, which was a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. This is significantly lower than the previous market's expectations. The continuing increase in CPI has caused domestic tightening policies to occur frequently.
On the evening of February 8, the People’s Bank of China announced that it will increase the benchmark interest rate of financial institutions from February 9 onwards. The one-year benchmark deposit rate of financial institutions will be raised by 0.25 percentage point, respectively, including a one-year benchmark deposit rate. Raised to 3%, the benchmark interest rate for one year ** reached 6.06%. The benchmark interest rates for other grades are adjusted accordingly. This is the first time the central bank has raised interest rates during the year and since October last year.
Afterwards, the central bank announced on February 18 that it raised the reserve requirement by 0.5% again, and further tightened monetary policy. The main intention of this adjustment may be two, one is to restrain commercial banks from lending, and the other is to target inflation that is still on the rise path. Both of these intents and the corresponding macroeconomic background suggest that the relatively abundant liquidity situation may continue for a period of time, at least in the short term. A series of domestic recycling liquidity policies show that domestic countries face strong inflationary pressures, and the euro zone and developing countries have already had different levels of early warning signs of inflation. This expectation will increase the volatility of copper-based industrial products.
Second, China's manufacturing slowdown Europe and the United States accelerated February 14 OECD organizations announced the latest indicators, the latest OECD indicators show that the developed countries have expanded again, the emerging market indicators have slightly dropped back from September to October the world economy since the second quarter of 2010 ( Q2) The beginning of the slowing trend showed signs of stabilizing, and the developed countries' economy entered the expansion period again. According to the OECD's leading indicator for December, the revised OECD countries' leading indicators rose by 0.3 points month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded by 2.2 points. From the data of various countries, the economic expansion of the United States, Japan, and Germany has shown signs of further acceleration, and the OECD's year-on-year growth rate of 2010M10 has bottomed out. The "BRIC countries" basically remained the same as or slightly declined from the previous month, and economic expansion slowed down under the government's control. China fell 0.2% month-on-month and fell for two consecutive months.
Global PMI continued to rise 1.6 points to 57.2 in January. The global new manufacturing demand in 2010Q2 (April) reached a stage high, and Q2~Q3 (May to September) slowed down from the high level. However, after October, the overall manufacturing industry entered the expansion period again, and inflationary pressures gradually accumulated.
On February 1, 2011, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 52.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. Following the December of last year, the PMI index continued to fall in January, indicating that the recent economic stabilization trend is not yet clear, and there is a possibility of continuing correction. Taken together, the current economic operation is still in a state of readjustment, and various control policies will be intensively introduced. In the near future, the price of nonferrous metals will intensify.
The U.S. PMI rose again in January, indicating that the U.S. economy's growth momentum after 2011Q1 has obviously improved. All the indicators have improved, inventory has dropped and new demand has increased; the unfinished orders have meant that there is ample room for improvement in employment; inflationary pressures have risen. Given the recent improvement in the Fed currency meeting statement, real estate, and the employment market, the probability of the Fed expanding its quantitative easing scale has been greatly reduced. After the economy entered the 2011Q1, the growth rate of the chain continued to recover, and the economic growth momentum was clearly stronger. We continued to focus on the subsequent growth of the employment and real estate markets.
Third, the US real estate market rises in the US real estate market. In January, the number of new housing starts soared by 14.6% qoq to 596,000 households, which was higher than market expectations. This indicates that new housing starts will be stabilized after the government's preferential policies are over, and the probability of bottoming out will increase in the future. . In December, there was a noticeable rebound in home sales, a 17.5% increase from the previous month, and there was a clear sign of a bottoming up.
In December, there was a noticeable rebound in home sales: In December, new home sales increased by 17.5% from the previous quarter to 329,000 units, which was higher than the market’s expected 300,000; the year-on-year decline narrowed significantly from 24% to 7.6%; inventory was down by 4.2% from the previous month. Inventory takes 8.1 months, down from 8.2 in the previous month. At the same time, in December, existing home sales surged by 12.3% qoq, better than market expectations; the year-on-year decline narrowed from 27.6% to 2.9%, and the signs of bottoming up were very clear. Existing stocks fell by 4.2% qoq to 3.56 million units; sales took 8.1 months, down from 9.5 months in the previous month. At present, the impact of tax incentives on housing sales has passed and the renewed recovery of the property market has already occurred!
In the US housing market, old home sales are the main force, and its sales account for about 85% of the total sales of the entire housing market. Since the collapse of the US real estate bubble in early 2006, the housing market has been drastically adjusted and has become the root cause of the financial crisis. The gradual improvement of the housing market is expected to lead the Fed’s policy forward.
Fourth, the ** high position fell slightly by the February 21, 2011 announced by the CFTC the latest US copper position data can be clearly seen, COMEX copper positions to lighten up more than 3,000 single-week week, the total position held a record high after a slight decline in the current Still within the range of high positions, the net long positions increased from 23,912 at the end of January to 29,039 hands, and the interest of net long positions increased. On February 21, the total positions were 159,468 lots. Positions maintained at a relatively high level, indicating that the latter is still optimistic about the copper market in the later period, and it is still expected to continue the upward trend after the short-term adjustment.
V. China's copper imports in January exceeded expectations. According to customs information, China’s unforged copper and copper imports amounted to 364,200 tons in January, an increase of 19,600 tons from 334,600 tons in December 2010, an increase of 5.71%. The year-on-year increase of 24.70%. China imported 245616 tons of refined copper in January, an increase of 24.5% year-on-year. In December 2010, the import volume was 228609 tons. In January, China's copper concentrate imports fell by 4.3% from the same period last year to 571,005 tons. China’s copper concentrate imports in January rose by 18% from 485055t in December last year.
The main reasons for the increase in imports in January are: First, since the beginning of February is the traditional Chinese Spring Festival holiday, both copper processing companies and end-consumer companies will carry out a certain amount of stocking. This part of the demand for stocking has increased the number of domestic enterprises to import. Copper and imported copper demand. Second, since there was some optimism about the holiday season and post-holiday copper price movements, speculators therefore made some speculative buying before the holiday season. In addition, the ratio of Shanghai and London in January slightly recovered, basically fluctuating between 7.4 and 7.5, and improved compared with December. Finally, many importers of copper have loosened their prices due to funds or liquidation, and imported copper has risen to the low of US$25 to US$30 per tonne, which has attracted some buying into the market.
Since February, the market has not completely recovered from the holiday atmosphere until mid-February, and the import market transactions have been holding a light situation. Affected by this, although the ratio of the two cities has continued to improve in the near future, it is expected that China will not forge in February. The import volume of copper and copper will fall back to a level of around 250,000 t.
6. Increment of stocks Copper price growth slowed LME (London Exchange) copper stocks began to increase gradually from December 2010, ending the downward trend of consecutive inventory for 10 months. London stocks continued to rise from around 340,000 t in December last year. As of February 21, London stocks have risen to 411,475t. Corresponding to inventories is cancellation of warehouse receipts, cancellation of warehouse receipts continues to fall, cancellation of inventory receipts inventory ratio from the previous 8% to 9% to 3% to 4%, in particular, cancellation of warehouse receipts in Asia maintains 0, shows From the pressure of inventory, the spot is relatively abundant. It is expected that with the end of the Lunar New Year and the start of the holiday season, market demand is expected to recover and inventory pressure will ease in March. At the same time, LME gradually reduced from the premium, indicating that the short-term shortage of spot situation has eased, the premium is between 2 to 8 US dollars. According to the sub-items, the inventory in the Americas and Europe began to flow out slightly in February, and Asian inventories inflowed sharply. As for cancellation of warehouse receipts, the Americas and European regions increased slightly, while Asia maintained a zero, indicating that the demand in Europe and the United States was weak in Asia.
VII. Outlook After entering the market, the price of copper still maintained a turbulent uptrend in 2011. In early February, Lunbron set a new record high of US$10,160/t, followed by a downturn. The strength of US economic data and the copper supply gap will widen in 2011. This is the main reason for the rise in copper prices. The geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East and the recovery of domestic liquidity have dampened the upward trend of copper prices.
From the perspective of the international environment, the economic recovery of the United States, Europe and other countries entered an accelerated period in 2011. Both the OECD index and the PMI index reflecting the manufacturing industry showed that the European and American regions have come from behind. In contrast, the domestic situation is completely opposite. The manufacturing index has continued to decline for three months, and the economic dominance will be returned to Europe and the United States in 2011. The Chinese government’s move to reclaim liquidity shows that China is determined to curb inflation and the market has experienced some degree of volatility.
With the improvement of real estate and employment data released by the United States, there is reason to believe that in 2011, the United States will gradually withdraw from the quantitative easing monetary policy, the rising price of crude oil will also cause potential inflation in developed countries, and recycling liquidity will hit market speculation. Enthusiasm, but this is only a short-term effect, behind the recovery of liquidity is the economy gradually on the right track.
For the copper market, the supply and demand side is still strong, metal attributes and financial attributes will continue to dominate the market, short-term pressure from the policy side to become the main reason for the adjustment of copper prices into March, the consumer season will limit the price adjustment space, short-term concern about 70000 ~ Support of 72,000 yuan, is expected to limit the adjustment is limited, the copper price is expected to usher in a high level of shocks, the pressure above the 75,000 to 76,000 yuan, maintaining a high level of consolidation pattern, the possibility of continuing high innovation is greater.
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