Aluminium prices have reached a stage of "falling or falling"

From January to November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 12.29% year-on-year, while Barclays estimated that aluminum stocks will continue to grow at least in the next four quarters and reach a record 8.67 million tons by the end of 2013. Shanghai aluminum was stable this week, but with the approach of the US fiscal cliff, the market did not send good news to pressure Shanghai aluminum.

First, industry news:

1. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Association, China's electrolytic aluminum output in November was 1,661,790 tons; in January-November, the total output was 1,873,200 tons, which represented a year-on-year increase of 12.29%; in November, the domestic production of alumina was 2,946,046 tons; the total output was from January to November. It was 34,658,833 tons; an increase of 10.25% year-on-year; domestic aluminum processing volume was 2,893,214 tons in November; and January-November output was 27,362,866 tons, an increase of 12.63% year-on-year.

2. The "2013 Tariff Implementation Plan" announced on January 1st, 2013, which has been issued since January 2013, China exports bauxite, coke, yellow phosphorus, fluorspar, magnesium, manganese, silicon metal, silicon carbide and zinc nine. Tariffs on various raw materials products will be cancelled. Fubao analysts believe that China's self-production situation is insufficient and most of them rely on imports. Therefore, the country's implementation of China's export of bauxite tariffs has little effect on bauxite.

3. According to data released by the International Aluminum Association on Thursday, global aluminum inventory in November decreased by 87,000 tons from the previous month to 2.258 million tons. In October, global aluminum inventory was 2.345 million tons. IAI said that inventories of aluminum in the world in November fell by 143,000 tons compared with the same period in 2011, when the inventory was 2.401 million tons.

4. The annual work conference of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requires that in 2013, it will continue to “adjust and optimize the industrial structure” and will “work hard to resolve the contradiction of overcapacity”. As part of the system construction, the "Guiding Opinions for Promoting Big Enterprises to Do Better and Stronger" will also be introduced. In 2013, we accelerated the merger and reorganization of industries with overcapacity and issued guidelines for mergers and reorganizations in key industries.

5. Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued an announcement regarding the issuance of the industry product standard "Technical Requirements for Steel-aluminum Composite Conductor Rails for Urban Rail Transport" and approved the "Technical Requirements for Steel-aluminum Composite Conductor Rails for Urban Rail Transport" as the product standard of the urban construction industry. It is CJ/T414-2012, and it implements on April 1, 2013.

6. The Vietnam Coal Mining Group (TKV) formally issued its 2013 production and operation plan to each of its subsidiaries. Among them, there are two plans for coal sales, namely, 43 million tons and 41.50 million tons, and the corresponding production targets are respectively 46 million tons and 43 million tons. Next year, TKV has also added 300,000 tons of alumina production plans. In December of this year, Lin Tongxinlai finally produced the first batch of alumina after two years slower than originally planned.

7. Kobe Steel decided to cancel the original plan to cooperate with Jiangsu Chang Aluminum to build an investment project in Inner Mongolia to build a large aluminum profile factory. The project was originally scheduled to start in 2013 and it will be put into production in 2015. It will mainly produce high-performance aluminum profiles mainly for automotive panel materials, with a total investment of approximately 40 billion yen, and the proportion of shares held by Kobe Steel and Chang Aluminum. 80% and 20%.

Second, electrolytic aluminum market:

Date Changjiang Spot Guangdong Foshan Guangdong Nanchu Chinalco (East China)

Prices of spot aluminium ingots all over the country have risen slightly again this week. The price of aluminum in East China had surged to RMB 15070/t at the beginning of the week, followed by a slight shock on the way, and it temporarily closed at RMB 15040/t on the weekend; Chinalco’s offer price increased by RMB 100/t to RMB 15300/t; Aluminum prices in southern China also rebounded slightly this week. Foshan aluminum ingot prices rushed to 15,330 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week, and temporarily closed at 15,270 yuan per ton at the weekend; the southern reserve aluminum also slightly higher, the highest level at the beginning of the week. To 15170 yuan / ton, and finally to close at 15,100 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic and foreign aluminum prices have been relatively small, especially since the outer disk is still closed for two days due to Christmas; therefore, the spot loss of aluminum spot imports in China has not changed too much this week, including the highest intraday trading session on Thursday. To 1726 yuan / ton, but still close to 1650 yuan / ton on the weekend. Due to the approaching year-end, the market transactions have become dull, and the aluminum price shocks at home and abroad have been significantly reduced, so we expect China's aluminum import and loss value will also turn into a slight shock. However, judging from the current trend, the domestic aluminum prices will show a slight stronger trend than the external disk after the year, which will lead to a steady decrease in the aluminum import losses in China. However, we expect the aluminum prices to fall back to below RMB 1,000/tonne. There is a certain degree of difficulty. Therefore, for importers, at least in the near future, there will still be a lack of better arbitrage opportunities.

East China: Spot aluminum ingot prices in eastern China spot market this week have risen slightly again, with fluctuations ranging mainly between 15010-15070 yuan/ton. This week, the volatility of East China Aluminum was relatively small, but aluminum prices remained slightly uptrend after experiencing a shock. At the beginning of the week, the highest aluminum prices had reached 15070 yuan/ton, and then the pressure fell slightly. However, as of the weekend, Closed at 15040 yuan / ton. We believe that this is mainly due to the end of the year when corporate funds are generally tight, resulting in inactive market transactions; however, we expect that aluminum prices should usher in a significant rebound after the end of the year. In fact, it is a good opportunity to stock down. We suggest that the current holders have temporarily not rushed to ship, and the market can temporarily focus on the 1.5-1.51 million trading range. Once the aluminum price breaks above this range, it is very likely that it will soon start pulling up; and the current aluminum price has actually declined. It fell, so for those who are well-funded, it is not necessary to stock up in a few days.

South China: Spot aluminum ingot prices in the South China spot market continued to rise slightly this week, and the fluctuation range remained mainly at 15210-15330 yuan/ton. The recent trend of aluminum production in South China should be slightly stronger than that of East China Aluminum. Currently, it has basically established its pattern of stabilization and rebound. This week, it also reached a week high at the beginning of the week, followed by a slight correction, but it is still small at the weekend. Close up. At the same time, transactions in the South China market are also slightly better than those in the East China market. In recent days, there are still a small number of merchants stocking at the end of the year. Therefore, we expect the strength of the market to be relatively strong when the market rebounds. We suggest that the business can temporarily focus on the 1.52-1.54 million trading range in the short term. Once it breaks through the range, it may imply that the time for the pull-up will come. At this time, we can actively buy goods through jiacang; and now, due to the preliminary stabilization of aluminum prices, the most The poor performance, that is, the relative stagnation in the recent period of time, so it is recommended that businesses with no actual needs can temporarily maintain a wait-and-see attitude, while those who can long-term stockholders can also tentatively stock a small amount.

Third, the upstream alumina market:

Aluminium prices in the domestic market remained basically flat across the country this week, while non-China aluminum prices did not change much. In Shanxi, there was no change in this week's quote. As of the weekend, the mainstream market price was still hovering around 2,550 yuan/ton; however, it was less than 2,550 yuan/ton. In Henan, the offer of major manufacturers this week is still at around RMB 2,700/tonne; while the price of small plants is slightly lower, but most of them remain above RMB 2,650/ton; the overall market turnover is slightly favoured, mainly related to the downstream companies’ stocking at the end of the year. . In Shandong, market quotations remained stable. Although current manufacturers’ sales are generally low, they are generally reluctant to cut prices. They are also slightly optimistic about the market outlook. As of the weekend, the mainstream prices in the market remained at around 2,700 yuan/ton. In southern China, the market price has remained relatively unchanged recently, and the transaction range has continued to be maintained at 2520-2560 yuan/ton; while Chinalco's manufacturers still maintain the same price of 2,900 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum prices have been oscillating sideways this week, and alumina prices have also maintained consolidation. However, we expect that the domestic market may usher in a larger round of rebound after the end of the year, so it is recommended that businesses with few stocks can still increase stocks in moderation. .

Fourth, scrap aluminum market:

1. Analysis of aluminum scrap market This week, Shanghai Aluminum maintained a slight turbulence, but the range of shocks narrowed. The macro news this week was mixed, but overall it was relatively stable. China announced that China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 638.5 billion yuan in November, an increase of 22.8% over the same period of last year. The growth rate continued to rise from October, indicating that the domestic economy has stabilized and recovered, and the market demand for basic metals is optimistic. Shanghai aluminum has formed a positive trend. In the U.S., although U.S. sales of pre-sale homes in November reached the highest level in two years, and the data show that the U.S. holiday has risen for nine consecutive months, indicating that the U.S. property market is showing a steady and persistent trend of recovery, due to the approaching fiscal cliff time, Failure to reach an agreement has made the market more concerned about the impact of the U.S. economic recovery. This will, to some extent, suppress the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. With the arrival of the New Year holiday, more cautious market watching, making it difficult for Shanghai aluminum to rise. And next week to remove New Year's Day holiday, only two days of trading day, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain the current slight shocks. This week, aluminum scrap price fluctuates slightly with Shanghai Aluminum, but it is mainly stable. The market's current confidence in the market is insufficient, and recyclers actively ship more.

Foshan area: The price of some scrap aluminum in Foshan this week was mainly stable. As of Friday, the prevailing quotation in the machined aluminum market was around RMB12,150-12,350/ton, and the price of raw aluminum was RMB12,600-12,800/ton, compared with last week. Flat. Near the end of the year, most of the traders in Guangdong are buying stocks at low prices. Most of them wait and see and look forward to next year's market. The overall market turnover is limited.

Hebei area: The price of scrap aluminum in the Hebei area was stable this week. As of Friday, the prices of machined aluminum were at RMB 12,200-12,400/ton, and that of aluminum alloy doors and windows was at RMB 12,950-13,050/ton, unchanged from last week. Recently, the price of aluminum scrap has been stable, and businesses have basically purchased on-demand.

Zhejiang area: The price of scrap aluminum in Zhejiang was stable this week. As of Friday, 78-80% of cans were offered at 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and aluminum alloy door and window materials prices were at 12300-12600 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week. Zhejiang aluminum scrap continued to be steady. With the approaching of the New Year holiday in China, the downstream purchasing will is not strong, the market atmosphere is not active enough, the transaction volume is light, and the market outlook is mainly stable.

Chongqing: As of Friday, the scrap aluminium market in Chongqing was flat compared to last week. As of Friday, the market reference price was 11,500-11700 yuan per ton for machined aluminium, and 12600 yuan to 12800 yuan per ton for aluminum alloy (door and window), which was unchanged from last week. . At present, the transaction situation in Chongqing is relatively stable. If the downstream companies have sufficient funds, there will be a small amount of stocks.

2. Difference between aluminum ingots and scrap aluminum prices This week, aluminum prices fluctuate slightly with Shanghai aluminum. As of Friday, the price of Foshan aluminum ingots (without tickets) remained at around 14360-14460 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from last week. The price of broken raw aluminum is around 12600-12800 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week. Recent output data released from domestic sources show that electrolytic aluminum output increased by 20.7% year-on-year in November, and the supply increased significantly. At present, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are still weak, and the weak supply and demand situation is hard to change in the short term. This is to a certain extent Shanghai Aluminum's trend has been suppressed. At present, near the end of the year, due to various reasons such as less orders and capital withdrawal, the enthusiasm of enterprises for stocking and procurement is not high, and aluminum prices are unlikely to have a big driving force. The prices of aluminum ingots and aluminum scrap have not changed much this week. The spread between spot aluminum ingots and aluminum scrap has remained stable at around RMB 1,710/ton, which is basically the same as last week. For scrap aluminum, it is still relatively good.

V. ** Market Analysis:

Aluminium was slightly turbulent this week, and the volatility was mainly maintained at 2067-2115 USD/ton. Aluminium aluminum narrowed this week, mainly due to Christmas and Tuesday to Wednesday, the market closed to the market; at the same time due to the approaching the end of the year, traders' performance for a year has been basically reflected, and do not want to carry out large-scale operations, so This week, the aluminum price has significantly narrowed. From the current trend, with the short-term moving averages divergence downward trend, we expect the aluminum market outlook does not rule out the possibility of further correction. The important support below is the two 2050 and 2000 integer mark. Although we expect that the $2,000 front line should be difficult to break below, once it really breaks down, the aluminum price correction in the afternoon will also exceed our expectations. Therefore, we suggest that investors can maintain a slightly biased approach. The short-term operation will be mainly short-selling. Among these two crossings of 2050 and 2000, if we can maintain stability, we can appropriately change our operational thinking; The overall trend of aluminum prices is still positive and bullish. It is even expected that aluminum prices will not rule out the possibility of returning to the $2500 line. At present, it is only waiting for the arrival of the rally. The resistance at the top of the market will focus on the $2,200 line, once a strong breakthrough is achieved. The coming of a major trend; the conservative style of operation can intervene at the latest.

Shanghai Aluminum was slightly consolidating this week, and the volatility was mainly maintained at 15095-15155 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the aluminum price once surged slightly, with the highest intraday price rising to RMB15,155/tonne. However, under pressure from the 40-day moving average, the aluminum price quickly fell again. As of the weekend, Shanghai Aluminum still hovered around 15,100, which is slightly lower than our previous expectations. As can be seen from the above chart, Shanghai Aluminum's shock amplitude narrowed this week, in which the long-term moving average continued to move smoothly downwards, while the short-term moving averages showed signs of increasing upwards; this is technically a good performance, implying that aluminum prices will soon Rebound; on this point, it is basically in line with our overall outlook for the market outlook. Although close to the end of the year, market funding tightened, and the foreign exchange market was closed, domestic aluminum prices lacked guidance; but Shanghai Aluminum's trend is still weaker than our expectations, which also makes us once again postpone the judgment of its backward market timing; Either way, at least before the New Year, aluminum prices should start to rebound quickly, and the maximum increase next year may be expected to reach about 10%. Therefore, we suggest that investors should not do any short-selling at this time, at most, it is to maintain wait-and-see mode for the time being. Even for long-term investors, it is possible to start tentatively establishing more than one single position. Afterwards, the market can temporarily focus on the 1.5-1.53 ​​million trading range. The interval is the moment when a clear rebound trend comes.

6. The start-up of aluminum processing enterprises in Zhejiang in December:

Fubao Research: This week, Fubao Aluminium R&D Group telephoned 19 start-ups and orders for 19 aluminum processing companies in Zhejiang. According to the survey data, in December, the orders of aluminum processing companies in Zhejiang fell slightly compared with November, and the average starts were lower. The rate is about 70%. Large and medium-sized processing companies stated that they have a stable customer base, and their orders are not declining year-on-year. Overall operating rates have remained above 80%. Among small-scale processing companies, most orders have fallen by more than 30% year-on-year, and some aluminum processing companies have even seen orders drop by 50. Above +%, only a few companies reported that their orders have remained stable or slightly increased year-on-year, and the overall operating rate has remained at around 60%.

Inventories at the end of the year are still based on inventory as much as possible to sell, the amount of storage of a small amount of inventory. However, under the weak market demand, coupled with the wet climate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, more than 80% of the companies said they would not overstock their excess inventory, which will reduce some of the previous year, in order to reduce operational risks. With regard to the issue of fund withdrawal, the customer stated that the return period was long and the funds were running at the end of the year.

Most of the processing companies are not optimistic about the market outlook. They all indicated that the volume of orders will not improve much in the past year. Some companies have expressed their expectation for the aluminum market next year.

Seven, operation suggestions:

Aluminium was slightly turbulent this week, and the volatility was mainly maintained at 2067-2115 USD/ton. Aluminium aluminum narrowed this week, mainly due to Christmas and Tuesday to Wednesday, the market closed to the market; at the same time due to the approaching the end of the year, traders' performance for a year has been basically reflected, and do not want to carry out large-scale operations, so This week, the aluminum price has significantly narrowed. From the current trend, with the short-term moving averages divergence downward trend, we expect the aluminum market outlook does not rule out the possibility of further corrections. The important support below is the two 2050 and 2000 integer mark. Although we expect that the $2,000 front line should be difficult to break below, once it really breaks down, the aluminum price correction in the afternoon will also exceed our expectations. Therefore, we suggest that investors can maintain a slightly biased approach, with short-term short-selling operations.

Shanghai Aluminum was slightly consolidating this week, and the volatility was mainly maintained at 15095-15155 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the aluminum price once surged slightly, with the highest intraday price rising to RMB15,155/tonne. However, under pressure from the 40-day moving average, the aluminum price quickly fell again. As of the weekend, Shanghai Aluminum still hovered around 15,100, which is slightly lower than our previous expectations. We recommend that investors should not do any short-selling at the moment. At most, they should remain wait-and-see for the time being. Even the long-term investors can already start tentatively to establish more than one order. After the market can temporarily focus on the 1.5-1.53 ​​million trading range, once it breaks through the interval upwards. , is the moment when the clear rebound trend comes.

In the spot market, spot aluminium ingots prices have risen slightly again this week. The volatility of aluminum prices in eastern China was relatively small, but aluminum prices remained slightly uptrend after experiencing fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, the highest aluminum prices had reached 15070 yuan/ton, and then the pressure fell slightly. However, as of the weekend, Closed at 15040 yuan / ton. We believe that this is mainly due to the end of the year when corporate funds are generally tight, resulting in inactive market transactions; however, we expect that aluminum prices should usher in a significant rebound after the end of the year. In fact, it is a good opportunity to stock down. The price of aluminum in southern China also rebounded slightly this week. The price of Foshan aluminum ingots rushed to 15,330 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week, but it temporarily closed at 15,270 yuan per ton at the weekend; we suggest that the business can temporarily pay attention to 1.52-1.54 in the short term. In the case of a volatility zone, breaking the zone may imply that the time for pulling up will be positive. At that time, it will be possible to actively purchase goods through jiacang. However, due to the initial stabilization of the aluminum price, the worst performance, that is, the relatively recent period of time is relatively stagnant. As a result, it is suggested that merchants with no actual needs can temporarily maintain a wait-and-see attitude, while long-term stockholders can also tentatively stock a small quantity.

VIII. Important Events and Data in the Next Week:

Dec. 31 China HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December;

January 1st China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index;

Jan. 2 Eurozone December Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index; US December ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index;

The number of initial jobless claims adjusted for the United States last quarter on January 3rd;

On January 4th, the United States adjusted the non-agricultural employment population in the December quarter; the United States adjusted the manufacturing employment population in the December quarter; the US unemployment rate in December; and the US durable goods order revision value in November.