Rebar will continue to rise after consolidation

Recently, the high level of the Shanghai Steel rebounded during the rebound and began to sort out, but its upward trend has not yet ended. It will still have a range of 3900--4000 yuan/ton in the later period. The continuous recovery of steel prices has enabled steel mills to profitably warm up, and later production enthusiasm will be further released. Therefore, the issue of high supply will continue to exist in the steel market. At present, the bullish factors still dominate the market. At this stage, the price of iron ore is firm and the inventory is low to support the steel price. Most steel mills raise the new phase of the factory price to boost the market. In addition, the willingness of funds for the expected autumn speculation is also high. .

Low stocks supported the steel market in July China's crude steel production 65.47 million tons, an increase of 6.2%, the average daily production of 2.119 million tons of crude steel, the chain fell 2.01%, continuous decline in March. The operating rate of blast furnaces in various regions of the country has declined, and high-temperature power restrictions have limited the production of some private steel mills. Steel stocks continued to fall back in mid-March. Most traders adopt the three-pole destocking strategy, making the pressure on the stocks in the hands of traders not heavy. At present, the stocks of rebar in major cities are 6.23 million tons, which is lower than the level of the same period in 2012. Under the background of insufficient resources, traders are willing to be very pricey.

The market is concerned about the autumn consumption From the recent data, since the implementation of the “State of the Five”, the real estate sales area, development investment, new construction area and land purchases have changed more moderately, and even new housing starts have shown continuous growth. Real estate investment is still pulling investment. The main force. The state will continue to increase the construction of affordable housing, and the amount of investment in affordable housing in 2013 will still be more than 1 trillion yuan, which will, to a certain extent, offset the impact of a drop in investment. After the off-season of traditional consumption, the end demand of the steel market may see some substantial improvement in the third quarter, which will ease the current supply and demand contradictions in the steel market. The recent market began to focus on consumer expectations in the fall.

Strong ore prices support steel prices Since the beginning of July, iron ore prices have continued to rebound and have recently seen a unilateral upward trend. The current price of imported ore is around US$142/ton. After the steel price rebounded, the steel mills were profitable, the funds were eased, and the buying up or buying was not obvious. This prompted the enthusiasm of the steel mills to purchase imported mines. The port iron ore inventory shows that, as of August 16, the country’s major port iron ore inventory was 71.48 million tons, and the tight supply situation has still not been effectively resolved. (