Aluminium is in a sideways phase and investors are on the sidelines

Lun aluminum fell slightly last Friday. After opening lower at 1753.5, the intraday session oscillated slightly and reached a high of 1756.5. With the sell-off, aluminum prices gradually fell, falling to a low of 1739.5, the market closed at 1745, down 9 dollars from the previous trading day. 86,913 contracts were sold throughout the day, an increase of 9432 compared with the previous trading day; the number of positions opened was 377,845 lots, an increase of 4,841 from the previous trading day; the inventory was 550,525 tons, which was 3,125 tons less than the previous day. After four consecutive weeks of negative gain, Lun finally closed with the small Yangxian. Although the Yangxian entity is not large, and volume and price are not ideal enough, it still has a significant effect on the continued decline of Lon Aluminum. Judging from the daily chart, LAU recorded a slight negative on Friday, making the oversold rally, which began on May 23, temporarily come to an end. However, the four consecutive small Yangxians from last Monday to Thursday will still play a significant role in supporting the recent price of Luminaire. From a technical point of view, the current relative strength index (RSI) fell back to around 50 again, and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average were intertwined, indicating that the possibility of sideways consolidation is relatively large. It is expected that the recent major fluctuation range will be Between 1720-1770. In terms of options, the premium for a strike price that expires in June 2005 that is worth $1750 per ton is significantly greater than the call premium. The volatility of the contract has narrowed to 14.59, indicating that option traders generally believe that Alcoa is currently trading at 1750. It is more likely to drop back slightly nearby. The report released by the American Economic Cycle Institute (ECRI) last Friday showed that due to the decline in commodity prices and the increase in bond market risk. The leading indicator for the week of May 20 fell to 132.9 from 133.1 in the previous week. The annual growth rate of this indicator has slipped from 1.7% in the previous week to 1.0%. But Achutan, the head of the United States Business Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), said that although the index has fallen for two months, it is still higher than last year's low in October, suggesting that the economy will continue to grow moderately this year. The unsatisfactory economic indicators further contributed to the slight fall of Lon Aluminum on Friday. Based on the above analysis, Lon Aluminium is currently in a sideways consolidation phase and it is recommended that traders take a wait-and-see approach.